This forecast is based on the fact that steel markets are largely balanced and will be in little better shape than in 2023. The forecasters have stated in their forecast that there will be a low single-rate growth of demand in most regions of the world. But China, the largest producer and consumer of global steel, will be accompanied by a decrease in production and consumption.
Although it should be kept in mind that the initial forecasts of each year for China will be accompanied by changes until the end of the year, because China, as a country with high power in the steel market, is highly dynamic in terms of its economy and needs. It has its own policies that can bring changes in predictions. The long-term stagnation in the real estate market from the previous years until 2023 put a lot of pressure on the Chinese economy and directly affected the country's domestic consumption. Most of the steel consumer sectors in this country showed signs of weakness from the second quarter of 2023, especially the key indicators of real estate and real estate such as housing sales and new constructions have been accompanied by a decrease. The growth of housing investment (cumulative) until September 2023 was around -9,1, while the period of 2022 was around -8.
Automotive production and infrastructure activities, particularly related to energy transmission, are expected to remain the main drivers of demand.
Improvement in demand, a slight increase in prices in China, India, and Europe and a decr
ease in the price of raw materials and raw materials, or it will remain at an average level with little change. India is the main growth market for steel for 2024, and plans indicate increased production and strong profit margins for producers in the country. Manufacturers of other prominent countries in the world market apart from China, now it is necessary for them to always have a look at the policies of India.
The European region, after several years of contraction in the steel market and consumption centers, will return to its positive growth due to attention in the automotive, industrial production and infrastructure centers amid the reduction in inflation and energy costs, but we must not forget that the weakness There will still be some structure in this area. The mergers that are taking place in the steel industry of the United States of America have somehow created discipline in the supply of steel in this country.
The main risk that can exist in the market is the prolongation of high interest rates in case of continued inflation in developed markets, high energy prices and China's economic policies, which will generally affect the global steel market in 2024.
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