Problems in natural gas supply in Europe and high levels of raw material prices, especially oil, cause inflationary concerns to remain on the agenda. While the data giving mixed signals on the macroeconomic side also support the concerns about growth, this situation strengthens the "stagflation" theme known as inflation in recession.
With the continuing problems in the supply chain and energy supply, the price of Brent oil per barrel reached its highest level since October 2018 with $84.2 and the price of West Texas type crude oil at $82.3 per barrel since October 2014.
On the other hand, the Chinese authorities' initiation of an inspection covering financial regulators, large state-owned banks, insurance companies and bad debt managers in order to eliminate corruption also reduced the risk appetite, especially in Asian stock markets.
While the continuation of commodity prices increased the concerns that inflation will remain on the agenda longer than expected, a sales-weighted course was observed in the New York stock market yesterday, while the Dow Jones index fell 0.72 percent, S&P 500 index 0.69 percent and Nasdaq index 0.64 percent at the close. . The downward revision of growth forecasts for the country's economy by Goldman Sachs, one of the leading investment banks in the USA, was effective in the negative course of the stock markets. The dollar index is flat today after closing at 94.4 levels with an increase of 0.3 percent yesterday. While it is noteworthy that the index futures contracts of the USA started with a decline, it is stated that the balance sheet season, which started this week, may increase the stock-based movements.
On the European side, energy prices, which continue to rise in an environment of inflationary concerns, also shake the confidence in the sustainability of the economic recovery. While this situation brought along pricing difficulties, a mixed course was observed in the European stock markets yesterday. DAX 30 index decreased by 0.05 percent in Germany and FTSE MIB 30 index decreased by 0.46 percent in Italy, FTSE 100 index increased by 0.72 percent in England and CAC 40 index increased by 0.16 percent in France. After closing at 1.1555 with a decrease of 0.2 percent yesterday, the euro/dollar parity remains flat today. European index futures contracts, on the other hand, seem to have started the new day with a decline.
While it is seen that the positive mood prevailing in Asian stock markets yesterday has left its place to a negative course, high oil prices, the inspections of the authorities in China and the continuation of the debt crisis problem in the real estate sector were effective in the decrease in investor risk appetite. Near the closing, Japan's Nikkei 225 index is down 1 percent, Shanghai composite index in China is down 1.05 percent, Kospi index in South Korea is 1.3 percent and Hang Seng index in Hong Kong is down 1.5 percent.
Analysts said that the factors that reduce the risk appetite in global stock markets are still present, and that investors may wait before the inflation data to be announced in the USA tomorrow and the meeting minutes of the US Federal Reserve.
Stating that today, the industrial production index in the country, the ZEW indices in Germany and the number of job vacancies in the USA will be followed abroad, analysts said that technically, 1,370 points in the BIST 100 index are support, and the levels of 1.420 and 1.440 are in the resistance position.
Economists participating in the survey conducted by AA Finans expect the calendar adjusted industrial production index to increase by 9.31 percent in August compared to the same period of the previous year. Economists predict that the unadjusted industrial production index will increase by 13.07 percent on an annual basis in August.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 England, unemployment rate in august
10.00 Turkey, industrial production in august
12.00 Germany, October ZEW Prospects Survey
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