Although the global macroeconomic data announced last week pointed to a relatively positive picture, the minutes of the last meeting of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) and the evaluations of the Fed officials increased the uncertainties.
While it was emphasized in the minutes that interest rate hikes would continue until inflation dropped significantly, pointing out the risks that the ever-changing economic framework might have been tightened more than necessary, created a dilemma.
Although Fed officials continued to give predominantly "hawkish" messages about the next meeting, pointing to inflationary risks, the fact that some said it was time to make a decision left the door open regarding the size of the rate hike.
While a sales-heavy trend was observed in the stock markets last week with the ongoing uncertainties, it is stated that the statements of the Fed officials will be critical in the new week. In this context, the messages of the central bank officials will be followed closely at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium, which will start on Thursday. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will also deliver a speech on Friday as part of the symposium.
While it is noteworthy that the macroeconomic data calendar is intense throughout the week, the services sector and manufacturing industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) to be announced worldwide, the Consumer Confidence Index and European Central Bank meeting minutes in the Euro Area, and revised growth and durable goods orders in the USA. will be followed closely.
Domestically, the summary of the meeting, where the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) cut interest rates by 100 ban points, and the reflections of macroprudential measures taken for commercial loan rates will be in the focus of investors.
With these developments, the New York stock market fell on Friday last week. While the Dow Jones index fell 0.86 percent, the S&P 500 index decreased by 1.29 percent and the Nasdaq index decreased by 2.01 percent, the weekly losses of the indices were realized as 1.3 percent on average. It is seen that the indices started the new week negatively in futures. The US 10-year bond yield continued its rise since the beginning of the month with increasing uncertainties and tested 3 percent. The dollar index, on the other hand, reached its highest level since July 15 with 108.3.
The negative effects of the decreasing water level in rivers on trade were added to the concerns about energy prices and the rising inflation in Europe last week. In the region where recession concerns increased, inflation data continued to follow historical levels. With these developments, in European stock markets, which followed a fluctuating course throughout the past week, the FTSE 100 index gained 0.66 percent in the UK, while the DAX 40 index in Germany was 1.82 percent, the CAC 40 index in France was 0 percent, compared to the previous week's close. 89 and Italy's MIB 30 index decreased by 1.89 percent. Euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, fell to 1.0024, the lowest level for more than a month, with the strong global demand for the dollar.
On the Asian side , the People's Bank of China reduced the reference loan interest rate by 5 basis points to 3.65 percent today. The bank, which reduced the 5-year reference loan interest rate by 15 basis points to 4.3 percent, thus reduced the cost of real estate market borrowings.
The supportive steps taken by the country's central bank since last week, pointing to the problems in the country's economy, increased the unrest, while the yuan rapidly depreciated against the dollar, reaching its lowest level in 23 months. Close to the closing, the Shanghai composite index in China increased by 0.6 percent and the Hang Seng index in Hong Kong increased by 0.1 percent, the Nikkei 225 index in Japan and the Sensex index in India decreased by 1 percent.
Domestically, the CBRT's policy rate cut and the macro-prudential measures taken last week to reduce commercial loans became the focus of the agenda. While investors were following the continuation of these steps and their effects, the BIST 100 index continued to break a record in Borsa Istanbul. Bringing the highest level it has ever seen to 3,051.83 points, the index gained 5.44 percent on a weekly basis. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, started the new day at 18,1110 at the opening of the interbank market, after completing the week at 18,1030 with an increase of 0.9 percent on a weekly basis.
Analysts stated that high inflation and increasing concerns about economies in the grip of recession made pricing difficult, adding that the stock markets started the week negatively with the strengthening dollar and increasing unrest over the Chinese economy.
Stating that in the evaluations of the central bank officials at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this week, clues will be sought for the course of monetary policies in the future, analysts stated that volatility may increase with the intensification of the data agenda, which started the week weakly.
Analysts stated that, technically, the BIST 100 index is at the level of 3.050 as resistance and 2.950 points as support.
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