The continuation of the upward trend in commodity prices increased the concerns that inflation, which rose due to supply and demand-related factors after the new type of coronavirus (Kovid-19) epidemic, will remain on the agenda for longer than expected. In an environment of downward pressures on growth, increasing inflationary concerns bring along uncertainties about monetary policies, and in this context, it is stated that the inflation data to be announced today in the USA and the minutes of the Fed Open Market Committee's (FOMC) September meeting will play an important role in shaping investor perception.
Recalling that the Fed gave the message that the rate of asset purchases could be slowed "soon" if the economic development continues as expected at the September meeting, the analysts said that the expectations in the market are that the Fed will start these steps in December and be completed in the middle of 2022.
Stating that the September inflation data, which will be announced today, will also give an important clue about the future of monetary policy, analysts emphasized that a realization above the expectations regarding the data realized at the level of 5.3 percent in August will confirm the tightening roadmap. Expectations are that annual inflation will remain at 5.3 percent.
On the macroeconomic side, according to the results of the New York Fed's Consumer Expectations Survey for September, short-term median inflation expectations covering the next 12 months increased by 0.1 percentage points to 5.3 percent in September. Short-term inflation expectations, which have been on the rise for 11 consecutive months, have reached the highest level since the survey was started in 2013. On the other hand, the number of JOLTS Job Openings in the USA fell to 10 million 439 thousand in August, recording the first decline since December 2020.
While a sales-weighted course was followed in the New York stock market yesterday, the Dow Jones index depreciated by 0.34 percent, the S&P 500 index by 0.24 percent and the Nasdaq index by 0.14 percent. The dollar index is at 94.3 today, after seeing its highest level since September 28, 2020 with 94.6 yesterday. The 10-year bond interest rate of the USA, which fell below 1.57 percent by falling from 1.63% yesterday, was balanced at 1.58 percent today. While it is noteworthy that the index futures contracts of the USA started today with a mixed course, it is stated that the balance sheet season that will start today may increase the stock-based movements.
On the European side, the European Union (EU) issued green bonds for the first time yesterday as part of the financing of the recovery program prepared to combat the economic consequences of Kovid-19. There was a record high demand for this export. While the data released continued to undermine confidence in the economic recovery, a sales-heavy trend was observed in the European stock markets yesterday with these developments. The FTSE 100 index in the UK lost 0.23%, the DAX 30 index in Germany and the CAC 40 index in France lost 0.34 percent. The euro/dollar parity rose to 1.1550 today, after closing at 1.1530 with a decrease of 0.2 percent yesterday. European index futures contracts seem to have a mixed start to the new day.
According to the data released in Asia today, August core machinery orders in Japan decreased by 2.4 percent on a monthly basis, contrary to the expectations of increase. In China, exports increased by 28.1 percent and imports by 17.6 percent in September compared to the same month of the previous year. The foreign trade surplus in the country exceeded the projections of 46.8 billion dollars and became 66.8 billion dollars with the support of the export data that came above the expectations.
In addition to the mixed signals of macroeconomic data, regulatory steps for various sectors in China, debt restructuring in the real estate sector and developments regarding supply problems remain at the center of the agenda. With these developments, Shanghai composite index gained 0.4 percent in China, Sensex index gained 0.6 percent in India and Kospi index gained 1 percent in South Korea, while Nikkei 225 index decreased by 0.3 percent in Japan.
Domestically, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul, after starting the day with an upward trend, gave back its close gains due to the rise in exchange rates and the decreasing global risk appetite and closed the day at 1,416.82 points with a limited increase of 0.04 percent. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is trading at 9.0410 levels at the opening of the interbank market today, after moving its historical peak to 9,0471 yesterday.
Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) raised its growth forecast for the Turkish economy from 5.8 percent to 9 percent for 2021, leaving it at 3.3 percent for 2022.
Analysts said that commodity prices, which have risen to record levels, continue to create inflation pressure on a global basis, and that increasing uncertainties negatively affect the stock markets.
Analysts stated that today, housing sales statistics in the country, FOMC meeting minutes abroad, inflation in the USA and Germany, and industrial production in the Euro Zone will be followed, and the BIST 100 index is technically 1.370 points support, 1.420 and 1.440 points. reported that the levels are in a resistance position.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
09.00 England, august industrial production
09.00 Germany, September CPI
10.00 Turkey, house sales in September
12.00 Eurozone, industrial production in august
15.30 US, September CPI
21.00 US, September FOMC meeting minutes
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