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High volatility continues in global markets due to geopolitical risks and inflation concerns

While inflation concerns and increasing geopolitical risks in global markets continue to cause volatility to remain high, the meeting between US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, which is expected to be held today, became the focus of the agenda.

High volatility continues in global markets due to geopolitical risks and inflation concerns

While the concerns that the Russian army would enter Ukraine after Russia's military build-up in the regions close to the Ukraine border increased, a new move came from the US administration. In the news based on the authorities in the US press, it was stated that the US administration allowed Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia to send their weapons of US origin to Ukraine in support of Ukraine.
US President Joe Biden also said that any crossing of Russian troops through the Ukrainian border would mean an invasion, and in this case, Russia would pay a heavy price. Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Union (EU) Commission, stated that they would impose very heavy economic and financial sanctions on Russia if it attacks Ukraine. increased volatility in the markets. On the other hand, the 10-year bond interest rate of the USA, which tested 1.90 percent on Wednesday with the cessation of sales in the bond market, carried the decline to the third day and decreased to 1.77 percent.

On the macroeconomic data side, weekly jobless claims in the USA reached the highest level in 3 months with 286 thousand last week. The increase in data indicated that the labor market impact of the Omicron variant was greater than anticipated. In the country, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index rose above expectations to 23.2 in January. Second-hand house sales, on the other hand, declined by 4.6 percent monthly in December, falling below the expectations. At the close, the Dow Jones index fell 0.89 percent, the S&P 500 index lost 1.10 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.30 percent. After closing at 95.7 with an increase of 0.2 percent yesterday, the dollar index is following a horizontal course today. According to the data announced yesterday on the European side, annual inflation in the Euro Zone in December reached the highest level of the last 25 years with 5 percent, led by the rise in energy prices. The Producer Price Index (PPI) in Germany also increased by 5% monthly and 24.2% annually, well above the expectations. While the minutes of the European Central Bank's (ECB) December meeting reveal that the members are of the opinion that the long-term high inflation risk cannot be left out of the scenario, ECB President Christine Lagarde, who participated in a radio program yesterday, said that inflation in the Euro Area will gradually decrease this year as supply bottlenecks ease. He said he predicted it would fall.

With these developments, a mixed course was observed in the European stock markets yesterday, while the DAX 30 index in Germany gained 0.65 percent, the CAC 40 index in France gained 0.3 percent, and the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.06 percent. The euro/dollar parity, which fell by 0.4 percent yesterday to the limit of 1.13, is moving around the level of 1.1325 today. On the Asian side, according to the minutes of the last meeting of the Bank of Japan (BoJ), some members are under pressure from the upward price pressures. It was noteworthy that although the majority said that inflation has increased, it is still far from the 2 percent target, and that the ultra-loose monetary policy should be maintained. On the other hand, according to data released today in Japan, inflation increased by 0.8 percent in December, above the expectations, while core inflation remained below the forecasts with 0.5 percent. While the news flow on the real estate sector and credit market in China was closely followed, the Shanghai composite index in China and the Nikkei 225 index in Japan lost value by 0.7 percent and 1.1 percent, close to the closing, with these developments.

Analysts said that inflation concerns and geopolitical risks cause volatility in the stock markets to remain high, and that the news flow regarding the meeting of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov in Geneva will be decisive on the direction of the markets today. Stating that the consumer confidence index will be followed in Turkey, analysts stated that technically, the level of 2.070 in the BIST 100 index is in the position of resistance, and the levels of 1.970 and 1.950 points are in the support position. index18.00 Eurozone, January consumer confidence index18.00 USA, December leading indicators index


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