While a cautious course was followed in global markets, with the expectations that central banks will continue to increase interest rates aggressively with the announced data, today the intense data agenda will be followed, especially the second quarter growth in the country, inflation in the Euro Area and private sector employment in the USA.
The "hawk" messages given by the US and European central bank officials as part of the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium last week continue to shape investor pricing.
Despite the fact that the globally announced data also increased recession concerns, the fact that more tightening is needed to reduce inflation causes investors to maintain their cautious stance.
According to the data released yesterday in the USA, the number of JOLTS Job Vacancies rose above expectations with 11 million 239 thousand in July, giving no signal that the demand in the labor market is slowing down. While this situation relieves the US Federal Reserve's (Fed) hand on aggressive interest rate hikes, the probability of a 75 basis point increase in interest rates at the bank's next meeting is currently priced at 72.5 percent.
While the aforementioned pricing is expected to be shaped after the ADP private sector employment to be announced today and the non-farm employment data on Friday, it is noteworthy that the new day started negatively in Asian stock markets and positive in the US and European index futures.
With these developments, a sales-oriented course was observed in the New York stock market yesterday. The Dow Jones index fell 0.96 percent, the S&P 500 index fell 1.10 percent and the Nasdaq index lost 1.12 percent. The dollar index fell to 108.6 today after testing 109.1 yesterday. The US 10-year bond yield, on the other hand, was balanced at 3.12 percent after seeing its highest level in two months with 3.15 percent yesterday.
According to the data released yesterday on the European side, inflation in Germany rose to 7.9 percent again after 2 months in August, reaching the highest level in nearly 50 years. While developments regarding the energy crisis, which is the main trigger of inflation in the region, continue to be at the top of the agenda, the price of the electricity contract with delivery next year in Germany exceeded 1000 euros for the first time.
While new members were added to the members of the European Central Bank (ECB) who supported the 75 basis point rate hike in September, with these developments, the CAC 40 index in France decreased by 0.19 percent and the FTSE 100 index in the UK decreased by 0.88 percent, and DAX in Germany. The 40 index rose 0.5 percent. Euro/dollar parity, on the other hand, is flat today after rising above 1 yesterday.
According to data released today across Asia, industrial production in Japan increased by 1 percent year-on-year in July, contrary to expectations for a decline. In this period, retail sales in the country also increased by 2.4 percent, exceeding expectations. In China, although the Manufacturing Industry Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) rose to 49.4 in August, it remained in the contraction zone with heat waves, new cases in the epidemic and developments in the real estate sector.
In the Asian stock markets, which started the day negatively with these developments, losses were limited with the news that China will provide 200 billion yuan (approximately 29 billion dollars) credit support to housing projects that are under construction. Close to the closing, the Shanghai composite index fell by 0.2 percent in China and the Nikkei 225 index in Japan fell by 0.5 percent.
While there were no transactions in the domestic markets yesterday due to the Victory Day holiday on August 30, the BIST 100 index in Borsa Istanbul continued to diverge positively from the global markets on Monday, increasing by 0.60 percent, renewing the closing record with 3,164.96 points. Dollar/TL, on the other hand, is traded at 18.1890 at the opening of the interbank market today, after closing at 18.1841 with a horizontal course in international markets yesterday.
Meanwhile, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) changed the required reserve communiqué and updated the target values for conversion from foreign currency deposits and participation funds to Turkish lira time deposits and participation funds. Within the scope of the changes, legal entities were also included in the transformation targets that were previously aimed only at natural persons.
Analysts stated that despite the increasing risk of recession globally, the "hawkish" messages given by central bank officials continue to shape investor pricing, and said that the cautious stance may continue before the data on the employment market in the USA to be announced on Friday.
Analysts said that today, the second quarter growth in the country, private sector employment in the USA, ADP private sector employment in the USA, inflation in the Euro Zone and unemployment in Germany will be followed, technically, the BIST 100 index is at the level of 3.200 as resistance and 3.050 points as support.
Economists expect the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to increase by 7.3 percent in the second quarter of the year.
The data to be followed in the markets today are as follows:
10.00 Turkey, second quarter GDP
10.55 Germany, unemployment rate in august
12.00 Euro Zone, CPI for July
15.15 USA, august ADP private sector employment
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